Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
